Below is Eurasia Group's list of the top 10 risks for 2020. Kavanaugh denied that and subsequent allegations, and angrily denounced the campaign against him as a “political hit” orchestrated by “left-wing opposition groups.”. Black homeownership has fallen steadily from a peak in 2004, despite gains for other groups in recent years. There are no significant restrictions on freedom of movement within the United States, and residents are generally free to travel abroad without undue obstacles. The intensely competitive US political environment is dominated by two major parties, the right-leaning Republicans and the left-leaning Democrats. Is there a realistic opportunity for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections? The House adopted two articles of impeachment against the president in a largely party-line vote in December, determining that Trump had abused his office by withholding a White House visit and duly appropriated military aid from Ukraine with the aim of compelling the Ukrainian leadership to make the requested announcements, and that he had obstructed Congress by ordering the executive branch to withhold documents and testimony from the House investigators even when subpoenaed. However, the two parties’ primary elections allow for a broad array of views and candidates to enter the political system. Lawmakers, elected state attorneys, researchers, activists, and criminal justice professionals have reached a broad consensus that the current level of incarceration is not needed to preserve public safety. The most prominent was a seat on the Supreme Court that the Senate had held open during 2016 by refusing to hold hearings on Obama’s nominee. Some states have adopted strict voter-identification laws whose documentation requirements can disproportionately limit participation by poor, elderly, or racial minority voters; people with disabilities; and university students. The academic sphere has long featured a high level of intellectual freedom. In March and October, the president vetoed congressional resolutions that sought to overturn his February declaration of a national emergency, which he used to reassign appropriated funds to advance construction of a wall along the border with Mexico. The second biggest risk for 2020 is one that has been in the headlines throughout the past year, according to Eurasia: The decision by China to reduce its technological dependence on the U.S. following Mr. Trump's trade war with the country. Americans are generally free to engage in private discussion and air their personal views in public settings, including on the internet, though a number of threats to this freedom exist. The Republican-controlled legislature in North Carolina had pioneered such moves after a Democrat won the governorship in 2016. Inequality remained a major problem in 2019 even as the national unemployment rate remained below 4 percent for a second consecutive year, its lowest level in decades. In 2019, one of Trump’s personal lawyers, Rudolph Giuliani, continued to work as a paid consultant for various foreign interests even as he represented the president, without compensation, in the Mueller inquiry and played a central role in the effort to pressure the Ukrainian government to announce investigations of Biden and his son. See all data, scores & information on this country or territory. In December, the opposition-controlled House of Representatives approved articles of impeachment against President Trump, accusing him of abusing his office by attempting to extort a personal political favor from the Ukrainian government, and of obstructing Congress by ordering the executive branch not to cooperate with the House’s impeachment inquiry. The Political Risk Map 2020 rates more than 200 countries and territories on the basis of short and long-term political, economic, and operational stability and gives insight into where risks are most likely to emerge. Students on a number of campuses have obstructed guest speakers whose views they find objectionable. The country’s “first past the post” or majoritarian electoral system discourages the emergence of additional parties, as do a number of specific legal and practical hurdles. US Army Africa/CC-BY 2.0. Turnout exceeded 49 percent of the voter-eligible population, the highest percentage for midterm elections since 1914. Get the latest breaking news delivered straight to your inbox. While a 2016 reform law was designed to improve government agencies’ responsiveness to FOIA requests, performance has declined during the Trump administration. In November, the Supreme Court heard a case on the administration’s effort to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which prevents the deportation of undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children. A growing number of Americans look to social media and other online sources for political news, increasing their exposure to disinformation and propagandistic content of both foreign and domestic origin. Outlets like the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN have conducted investigations into the business affairs of Trump and his associates, closely examined the facts at the heart of the Mueller and impeachment investigations, and regularly assessed the accuracy of the administration’s claims. In January 2019, the administration unveiled a new program allowing border authorities to force non-Mexican asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are adjudicated in the United States; tens of thousands of people had been returned to Mexico under the program by year’s end, often living in difficult and dangerous conditions there. The country has achieved high levels of economic development over a couple of decades. The legal and political environments are supportive of entrepreneurial activity and business ownership. "*#*" Denotes an estimate for sites with limited data. A new regulation introduced in August, if it survived court challenges, would allow families that cross the border irregularly to be detained indefinitely while their cases are heard, replacing past rules that required either the release of the family or the separation of children from detained adults. In July, the administration announced that individuals generally could not seek asylum in the United States if they passed through a third country without seeking and being denied asylum in that country, effectively blocking claims from Central Americans who travel through Mexico; the Supreme Court in September allowed the rule to take effect as legal challenges proceeded. The larger platforms have struggled to control false or hateful material without harming freedom of expression or their own business interests, though they have announced multiple mass removals of accounts linked to Russia, Iran, and China that were being used to spread disinformation. The GDP grew by 2.2 % in 2019 - against 3 % in 2018 - and is expected to fall to -4.3 % in 2020 due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and pick up to 3.1% in 2021, according to the updated IMF forecasts from October 2020. Elections for the bicameral Congress are generally free and competitive. Be in the know. The country’s labor code and decisions by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) during Republican presidencies have been regarded as impediments to organizing efforts, but even Democratic administrations have largely failed to reverse the deterioration. An array of policies and programs are designed to protect the rights of individuals against discrimination based on race, ethnicity, gender, and other categories, including in the workplace. The United States is a federal constitutional republic, in which the president (the head of state and head of government), Congress, and judiciary share powers reserved to the national government, and the federal government shares sovereignty with the state governments.. In 2018 the Supreme Court upheld the third version, which banned most entries by citizens of Iran, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and one non-Muslim country, North Korea. Organized labor did score a modest victory the same year when referendum voters in Missouri overturned a 2017 law that would have similarly allowed private-sector workers who benefit from union bargaining to opt out of paying union dues or fees. The Trump administration has sought to roll back its predecessors’ moves to expand the rights of LGBT+ people through executive actions and rulemaking for federal agencies and contractors. Women are also most often affected by sexual harassment and assault in the workplace. A succession of other Trump administration policies have focused on curbing the arrival of asylum seekers at the southern border, most of whom have come from Central America in recent years. Although the United States has a long tradition of free elections, the 2016 contest featured a significant amount of interference from a foreign power. "It's the first time in history of our firm that a domestic political risk is No. Trump’s nominee, federal appellate court judge Brett Kavanaugh, narrowly won confirmation after contentious Senate hearings in which a woman came forward to accuse him of having sexually abused her while both were in high school. Suspension or arbitrary application of law; widespread human rights abuses. "Iran is a committed adversary of the United States but also has a clear understanding of U.S. military power … as well as (now) a better sense of Trump's red lines and deterrence capacity," the report noted. The threat of deteriorating U.S.-Iran relations ranks at No. That represents a shift away from decades of globalization, Bremmer said. in 2020, U.S. goods imports from Poland totaled $8.3 billion. They argued that without such separation, the president could use his office for personal enrichment or allow his official decisions to be influenced by his private business interests; lawsuits that were ongoing in 2019 focused on a constitutional rule that forbids officeholders from receiving compensation, or “emoluments,” from foreign governments, which Trump was accused of doing through his businesses. US laws and practices give wide freedom to nongovernmental organizations and activists to pursue their civic or policy agendas, including those that directly oppose government policies. He added that "very soon" the world's largest economy may no longer be America's capitalist system, but China's hybrid of state control and capitalism. There are also hundreds of thousands of pretrial detainees and short-term jail inmates behind bars. In response to acts of violence committed in the course of some past demonstrations, local authorities often place restrictions on the location or duration of large protests.